Black swan - Revision history

imported>Doug Williamson: Add link.

2021-12-31T04:49:41Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:49, 31 December 2021
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	* [[COVID-19]]		* [[COVID-19]]
	* [[Fat tail]]		* [[Fat tail]]
			* [[Green swan]]
	* [[Guide to risk management]]		* [[Guide to risk management]]
	* [[Heuristic]]		* [[Heuristic]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Add links.

2021-08-08T12:54:16Z

Add links.

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:54, 8 August 2021
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	* [[Horizon scanning]]		* [[Horizon scanning]]
	* [[Moody's]]		* [[Moody's]]
			* [[Optimal capital structure]]
	* [[Optimisation]]		* [[Optimisation]]
	* [[Portfolio analysis]]		* [[Portfolio analysis]]
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	* [[Stress test]]		* [[Stress test]]
	* [[Unicorn]]		* [[Unicorn]]
			* [[Weighted average cost of capital]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Add link.

2021-07-30T17:35:36Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:35, 30 July 2021
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	* [[Guide to risk management]]		* [[Guide to risk management]]
	* [[Heuristic]]		* [[Heuristic]]
			* [[Horizon scanning]]
	* [[Moody's]]		* [[Moody's]]
	* [[Optimisation]]		* [[Optimisation]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Expand quote. Source: Living with Black Swans https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/

2021-06-20T01:03:19Z

Expand quote. Source: Living with Black Swans https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:03, 20 June 2021
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	:I hope the message will finally get across because I haven't succeeded yet.		:I hope the message will finally get across because I haven't succeeded yet.

	:People talk about black swans but they don't talk about robustness, which is the real lesson of the black swans."		:People talk about black swans but they don't talk about robustness, which is the real lesson of the black swans ..."


			:"... almost 99 cases out of 100 optimizations make you vulnerable and fragile ...

			:... [When a company becomes] more specialized with things, and it works better, the numbers look better. But your hidden risks rise and rise. And then when you are faced with a problem, you don’t know what to do about it, whereas in other cases you have more variations all the time. You have more fluctuations and, of course, you are a lot more robust."


			:"... try not to predict the catalyst, which is the most foolish thing in the world, but to try to identify areas of vulnerability. [It’s] like saying a bridge is fragile. I can’t predict which truck is going to break it, so I have to look at it more in a structural form ...

			:And then you learn not to try to predict which truck is going to break that bridge. But you just look at bridges and say, “Oh, this bridge doesn’t have a great foundation. This other one does. And this one needs to be reinforced.” We can do a lot with the notion of robustness."

	:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''		:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''
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	== External ~~link~~ ==		== External links ==
			[https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-taleb-on-living-with-black-swans/ Nassim Taleb on Living with Black Swans]

	[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus may be a black swan like no other: Moody's]		[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus may be a black swan like no other: Moody's]

	[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]		[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Add link.

2021-06-05T21:48:36Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:48, 5 June 2021
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	* [[Probability]]		* [[Probability]]
	* [[Redundancy]]		* [[Redundancy]]
			* [[Resilience]]
	* [[Risk]]		* [[Risk]]
	* [[Stress test]]		* [[Stress test]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Add links.

2020-05-02T23:26:05Z

Add links.

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:26, 2 May 2020
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	:Turkeys need to gather more information and to analyse it.		:Turkeys need to gather more information and to analyse it.


	:''How not to be a sucker - A Black Swan is relative to knowledge - The Black Swan, 2010 pp40-44.''		:''How not to be a sucker - A Black Swan is relative to knowledge - The Black Swan, 2010 pp40-44.''
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	:People talk about black swans but they don't talk about robustness, which is the real lesson of the black swans."		:People talk about black swans but they don't talk about robustness, which is the real lesson of the black swans."


	:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''		:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''

imported>Doug Williamson: Add links.

2020-05-02T23:21:03Z

Add links.

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:21, 2 May 2020
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	* [[Heuristic]]		* [[Heuristic]]
	* [[Moody's]]		* [[Moody's]]
			* [[Optimisation]]
	* [[Portfolio analysis]]		* [[Portfolio analysis]]
	* [[Probability]]		* [[Probability]]
			* [[Redundancy]]
			* [[Risk]]
	* [[Stress test]]		* [[Stress test]]
	* [[Unicorn]]		* [[Unicorn]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Mend link title.

2020-03-25T14:36:32Z

Mend link title.

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:36, 25 March 2020
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	== External link ==		== External link ==
	[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus ~~many~~ be a black swan like no other: Moody's]		[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus may be a black swan like no other: Moody's]

	[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]		[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]

imported>Doug Williamson: Add link.

2020-03-25T14:36:06Z

Add link.

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:36, 25 March 2020
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	== See also ==		== See also ==
			* [[COVID-19]]
	* [[Fat tail]]		* [[Fat tail]]
	* [[Guide to risk management]]		* [[Guide to risk management]]
	* [[Heuristic]]		* [[Heuristic]]
			* [[Moody's]]
	* [[Portfolio analysis]]		* [[Portfolio analysis]]
	* [[Probability]]		* [[Probability]]
	* [[Stress test]]		* [[Stress test]]
	* [[Unicorn]]		* [[Unicorn]]


			== External link ==
			[https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/weekly-market-outlook-coronavirus-may-be-black-swan-like-no-other.pdf Coronavirus many be a black swan like no other: Moody's]

	[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]		[[Category:Identify_and_assess_risks]]

imported>Doug Williamson: correct name

2020-03-25T13:49:04Z

correct name

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:49, 25 March 2020
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	:''Living with Black Swans - Nicholas ~~Nassim~~ Taleb.''		:''Living with Black Swans - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.''