Compound Annual Growth Rate

(CAGR).

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is calculated from total growth over a longer period as:

CAGR = (End amount / Starting amount)^(1/n) - 1

Where:

n = number of years between the two points sampled

Example 1: Sales growth over two years

Sales have grown from $100m to $150m over the most recent 2-year period.

The CAGR is:

= (150 / 100)^(1/2) - 1

= 1.5^(1/2) - 1

= 22.5%.

During this particular 2-year historical period, sales were growing at an average rate of 22.5% per annum.

However, this is not evidence about any other periods, particularly not future periods.

Example 2: Sales growth over three months

The same formula can be used to calculate a compound annual growth rate, based on a shorter sampling period.

Sales grew from $100m to $115m over a historical period of 3 months (= 0.25 years).

The CAGR caclulated from this data is:

= (115 / 100)^(1/0.25) - 1

= 1.15⁴ - 1

= 74.9%.

During this particular 3-month period, sales grew at a rate of 74.9% per annum.

On its own, this is NOT evidence that sales will continue to grow at this rate during the remaining 9 months of the year, nor indeed in any other period.

Proper use of this kind of analysis will investigate the reasons for the figures, and then respond appropriately.

See also

• Compound
• Compound interest
• Extrapolation
• Geometric mean
• Internal rate of return
• YOY